Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
